[Talks@IDSIA] Monday 12 Nov, h 10:30: "Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation for Microgrid Applications"

::Title: "Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation for Microgrid Applications" ::IDSIA meeting room ::Speaker Enrica Scolari PhD student at EPFL ::Abstract The penetration of stochastic renewable generation in modern power systems requires reconsidering conventional practices to ensure the reliable operation of the electrical network. In order to cope with the uncertainties of the renewables, predictive schemes that leverage on forecast of renewable generation recently came into prominence. In particular, small-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems are expected to represent most of the future available capacity, and consequently, solar resource assessment and forecasting are of fundamental importance. The presentation focuses on forecasting methods and generation models to support the integration of PV systems in the grid, considering short-term temporal horizons (below one hour) and limited spatial resolution (single site installations). In this respect, nonparametric tools to deliver prediction intervals from sub-second to intra-hour horizons are proposed and benchmarked. They forecast the AC power and/or the solar irradiance by extracting selected endogenous influential variables from historical time-series. The integration of features from all-sky images into the prediction chain will also be discussed. The proposed methods are experimentally validated in a real microgrid by considering possible applications in modern power systems.